《世界能源展望》是全球能源领域最权威的分析和预测的重要来源。这份由国际能源署（iea）出版的旗舰出版物，自 1998 年以来每年更新出版，其客观的数据和冷静的分析，为不同情景下的全球能源供需以及对能源安全、气候目标和经济发展的影响提供了重要的见解。

 

 

《2021年世界能源展望》报告认为，加快电气化、提高能效、减少甲烷排放以及推动清洁能源创新，将有助于将全球温升控制在1.5℃以内。大力推进能源终端用能的清洁电气化。热泵是建筑行业最大的电气化机会，取代了化石燃料锅炉的供暖。清洁能源转型需注重以人为本，能源转型还需全社会的支持与参与。如公众支持改用电动汽车或热泵，行为方式的改变将贡献4%左右的碳减排量。

 

在“所有区域可持续发展情景假设”中的“建筑业政策”，明确增加对现有建筑物能效和二氧化碳减排措施的支持，包括在一些国家进行改造、热泵、直接使用太阳能和地热能。在“所有区域2050年净零排放假设”中，明确到2045年，热泵将满足50%的供热需求。

 

表1 所有区域：可持续发展情景假设

 

 

表2 所有区域：2050年净零排放假设

 

 

原文节选如下：
原文：heat pumps are the largest electrification opportunity in the buildings sector, displacing heating from fossil fuel boilers. although electric heat pumps are an increasingly attractive option, gas-fired boilers remain the dominant form of space heating in the steps and in many countries in the aps. ensuring that new buildings meet zero-carbon-ready standards, and providing incentives for householders to install heat pumps when existing heating options breakdown or need to be replaced, both help to close the gap between the aps and the nze.electrification is also increasingly used in the nze to provide low-temperature heat in industry.

 

译文：热泵是建筑行业最大的电气化机会，取代了化石燃料锅炉的供暖。尽管电动热泵是一种越来越有吸引力的选择，但燃气锅炉仍然是steps和aps许多国家的主要空间供暖形式。确保新建筑符合零碳标准，并鼓励住户在现有供暖方案出现故障或需要更换时安装热泵，这两方面都有助于缩小aps和nze之间的差距。nze也越来越多地使用电气化在工业中提供低温供热。
（注：steps为既定政策情景，aps为承诺目标情景，sds为可持续发展情景，nze为净零排放情景。）

 

原文：far-reaching energy transitions require support and engagement across society. a number of changes depend on broad social acceptance. in the nze, at least half of emissions reductions over the next decade require some kind of consumer buy-in, e.g. a decision to switch to an ev or a heat pump. around 4% of emissions reductions require behavioural changes, e.g. cycling rather than driving to work.

 

译文：深远的能源转型需要全社会的支持和参与。许多变化取决于社会的广泛接受。在新西兰经济区，未来十年至少有一半的减排需要某种消费者的认可，例如，决定改用电动汽车或热泵。约4%的减排需要改变行为，例如骑自行车而不是开车上班。

 

原文：energy efficiency is the key to tempering demand growth and unlocking these multiple benefits. current and announced policies would only lead to annual efficiency improvements of 2%, but pushing efficiency towards its full economic potential– including through switching to heat pumps for low‐temperature process heat needs –could increase the rate of improvement to 3%.

 

译文：能源效率是缓和需求增长和释放这些多重效益的关键。当前和宣布的政策只能使年效率提高2%，但将效率推向其全部经济潜力——包括通过切换热泵满足低温工艺热需求——可以将提高率提高到3%。

 

原文：reducing space heating emissions in line with the eu climate objectives also depends on a switch to low‐carbon heating technologies such as heat pumps or renewables together with the use of building‐related digital and connected technologies for energy management and of more efficient appliances.

 

译文：根据欧盟气候目标减少空间供热排放还取决于转向低碳供热技术，如热泵或可再生能源，以及使用与建筑相关的数字和连接技术进行能源管理和使用更高效的电器。

 

原文：in buildings, electric heat pumps offerthe biggest opportunity for displacing fossil fuel boilers for heating. electric heat pumps are an increasingly attractive technology to meet heating needs in buildings, and installations in the steps rise from the current 1.5 million per month to around 3 million by 2030, leading sales for new construction in many regions. in the aps,heat pump installations reach 3.5 million per month by 2030, while in the nze they reach 5 million a month.

 

译文：在建筑物中，电热泵提供了取代化石燃料锅炉取暖的最大机会。电热泵是一种越来越有吸引力的技术，可以满足建筑物的供暖需求，到2030年，电热泵的安装量将从目前的每月150万台增加到300万台左右，在许多地区引领新建筑的销售。到2030年，aps地区的热泵安装量达到每月350万台，而nze地区的热泵安装量达到每月500万台。

 

原文：thanks to significant cost declines in the last decade, heat pumps are becoming more and more competitive as the technology and market mature. they are especially attractive for the one‐third of the global population living in regions requiring both space heating and cooling, since reversible heat pumps are able to deliver both services (iea, 2020a). however,non‐economic barriers commonly hinder customer adoption. for example, heating equipment is usually only replaced when the existing equipment fails, and switching to a different kind of heating system may take time and involve substantial extra work. this is compounded by split incentives in rental properties: the savings from lower utility bills often accrue to renters, while building owners pay the higher upfront costs. some governments have created financing programmes to overcome these upfront cost barriers or have introduced bans on new fossil fuel boilers.

 

译文：由于过去十年的成本大幅下降，随着技术和市场的成熟，热泵的竞争力越来越强。由于可逆式热泵能够提供这两种服务，因此它们对生活在需要空间供暖和制冷的地区的全球三分之一人口特别有吸引力（iea，2020a）。然而，非经济障碍通常会阻碍客户采用。例如，加热设备通常仅在现有设备出现故障时更换，切换到不同类型的加热系统可能需要时间，并涉及大量额外工作。租赁物业的分割激励使这一点更加复杂：较低的公用事业费用节省下来的费用通常会累积到租客身上，而建筑业主则支付较高的预付成本。一些国家政府制定了融资计划，以克服这些前期成本障碍，或对新的化石燃料锅炉实行禁令。

 

原文：in buildings, changes in natural gas demand are closely correlated with the pace and scale of building retrofit rates and of the roll-out of heat pumps, especially in regions where gas plays a seasonal role in heating. in the steps, natural gas remains the default option for space heating, the building retrofit rate is less than 1% per year and around 3 million heat pumps are installed every month in buildings around the world in 2030 (compared with 1.5 million today). in the aps, countries with net zero pledges accelerate ambition in both areas, leading to a retrofit rate of around 1.5% per year globally and the installation of 3.5 million heat pumps every month in 2030. the implementation gap between steps and aps is closed through measures such as bans on the sale of new gas-fired boilers (except where they are compatible with low-carbon gases) and the introduction of strict performance standards for existing and new buildings together with incentives for retrofits. in the nze, the global rate of retrofits increases to 2.5% per year and around 5 million heat pumps are installed every month in 2030. natural gas demand in buildings, which is around 850 bcm today, grows by 70 bcm in the steps to 2030, falls by 30 bcm in the aps, and falls by 300 bcm in the nze.

 

译文：在建筑物中，天然气需求的变化与建筑物改造率和热泵推广的速度和规模密切相关，尤其是在天然气在供暖中起季节性作用的地区。在这些步骤中，天然气仍然是空间供暖的默认选项，建筑改造率每年不到1%，2030年全世界建筑每月安装约300万台热泵（相比之下，目前为150万台）。在aps中，净零承诺的国家加快了这两个领域的雄心壮志，导致全球每年约1.5%的改造率，并在2030年每月安装350万台热泵。steps和aps之间的实施差距通过禁止销售新的燃气锅炉（与低碳气体兼容的除外）以及为现有和新建筑引入严格的性能标准以及鼓励改造等措施来弥补。在新西兰，全球每年的改造率增加到2.5%，到2030年，每月安装约500万台热泵。建筑中的天然气需求目前约为850 bcm，到2030年将增长70 bcm，aps下降30 bcm，nze下降300 bcm。